Carriers are beginning to respond to an upturn in cargo volumes by increasing capacity, according to the consultancy's analysis of first quarter trends in its World Economy and Trade report.
Trade volumes on the Far East to Europe routes are forecast to rise eight per cent in 2010. The export trade from Europe to Asia grew in 2009 and is expected to grow in 2010.
Transpacific eastbound trade - from Asia to North America - began to recover in the third quarter 2009, though the downturn in 2009 was 18 per cent, and is forecast to grow 10 per cent in 2010.
Solid growth is forecast for westbound trade after two years of decline. Eastbound transatlantic trade from North America to Europe is forecast to return to 2007 levels by 2013. However, westbound transatlantic traffic will not rebound until later, said the report.
Major container shipping operators recorded huge losses in 2009 it said, but in February and March, the number of containerships in layup diminished and stood at 1.2 million TEU, or 9.1 per cent of the container fleet on March 1, the lowest level since July 2009.
Additional capacity is expected to be taken back into service in the near future as new services are opened and vessels reduce their cruising speed.
The outlook for bulk shipping also is improving following a dramatic reduction in bulk commodity trade over the past year. IHS Global Insight forecasts bulk trade to grow 8.9 per cent in 2010 as commodity consumption demand recovers.
Dry bulk commodity shipping tonnage, including grain, iron ore and coal, fell two per cent in 2009, but is forecast to grow 9.4 per cent in 2010, despite decreases in global grain shipments.
Liquid bulk trade - petroleum, liquefied natural gas and chemicals - is forecast to grow 8.5 per cent in 2010. With the oil market well supplied with spare productive capacity of six million barrels per day and ample inventories in 2010, trade may continue to rise.
Source : HKSG, 04.05.10.
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