CONTAINER shipping demand growth will outpace the growth in supply in 2010 by more than two per cent, according to Clarkson Research, who recently increased its previous forecast of 10.9 per cent demand growth this year to 11.1 per cent.
The latest revision to Clarkson’s forecast comes as trade volumes continue to be strong heading into the second half, despite some indications that growth rates are slowing.
"Demand side growth in 2010 is expected to outpace supply side growth, benefiting both time charter and freight rates, which have generally seen substantial upwards movement in the y-t-d (year to date)", the group said.
According to the Clarkson’s forecast the Asia-Europe trade this year will see the strongest growth with volumes now projected to reach 17.2 million TEU, representing a growth rate of 13.1 per cent for the year.
Transatlantic traffic is expected to grow 12 per cent from roughly five million TEU last year to an estimated 5.6 million TEU in 2010.
Non-mainline east-west routes, which includes trades between North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent, will grow an anticipated 10.4 per cent from 14.4 million TEU in 2009 to 15.9 million this year.
Clarkson’s estimates for the transpacific trade remain consistent with information we have heard on the transpacific with solid, steady growth projected this year of 10.3 per cent to 20.3 million TEU, up from last year’s 18.4 million TEU.
On the north-south trades volumes are forecast to rise 9.2 per cent year on year from 20.6 million TEU to 22.5 million TEU, while all other trades, the intra-regional and south-south routes, are forecast to grow 11.4 per cent to 56.5 million TEU this year.
In terms of capacity, Clarkson is projecting a growth of 8.8 per cent for the full year, which will bring the fully cellular containership fleet to over 14.1 million TEU.
Source : CSM, 01.09.10.
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