[290910.EN.SEA] Containerships Have Upper Hand In Coming Reefer War: Drewry

RIVALRY between specialist refrigerated cargo lines and container shipping fleets is expected to heat up in a coming reefer war as box ships increase their cold chain capacity, says London's Drewry Shipping Consultants.
"Ironically, the specialised reefer tonnage is shrinking while the demand for commodities is growing year on year, much of which is more suited to the specialised type of vessel," says Drewry's Reefer Shipping Markets
Review & Forecast 2010/11.


"Containerships have the upper hand, but the real potential could lie with a resurgence of specialised vessels between 2010 and 2015, despite last year's hiccough," said the report.


Thus, Drewry said it expects decline in the specialised sector after a fall in tonnage last year, but suggests it will grow substantially in the future, said London's International Freighting Weekly.


"By mid-2010, the specialised reefer fleet above 100,000 cubic feet had fallen to 727 vessels - down 17 per cent in less than 10 years. The scrapping of specialised vessels has increased since 2008 - averaging 37
vessels a year over the last two years," it said.


The average age of specialised reefer ships over 100,000 cubic feet is 22 years against a containership average of 10 years, a contrast likely to remain as more newbuilds box ships are delivered, the report said.


The specialised reefer fleet will shrink while the containership fleet will grow in the next two years, said Drewry.


"Recession brought a number of operators to their knees, but it also served to keep operating costs down," said the report. "That is all predicted to change. Raw material prices have started to rise, as have the
all important lube oils.


The shortage of skilled seafarers remains a problem, and wages, held back down during the downturn, are set to spiral once more. Overall, the trend will be for rising costs post-2011.


"Even the known orderbook for the newbuild containerships is larger than the whole specialised fleet," it said.


"This divergence between the two modes could see the specialised sector account for as little as 8.4 percent of capacity berthed by 2012.


Source : HKSG, 29.09.10.