[130711.EN.SEA] Global Port Tracker Expects Autumn Upturn In US Import Container Volume

US IMPORT cargo volume at American major container ports continued flat, but is expected to resume increases in the autumn, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

"With the economy facing continuing challenges, retailers are managing their inventory levels carefully," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. "But the increases in import volume expected this fall are a clear sign that retailers are confident consumer demand will be there in the fourth quarter."

US ports surveyed handled 1.28 million TEU in May, the latest month for which numbers are available. That was up six per cent from April and one per cent from May 2010. It was the 18th month in a row to show a year-on-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-on-year declines.

June was estimated at 1.31 million TEU, down 0.80 per cent year on year if the estimate holds true when final numbers become available. July is forecast at 1.36 million TEU, which would be a 1.3 per cent decrease from a year ago, and August is forecast at 1.43 million TEU, up 0.60 per cent from last year. 

Stronger increases are expected to return in September as retailers begin to stock up for the holiday season, with volume forecast at 1.47 million TEU, up 10 per cent from last year. October is forecast at 1.53 million TEU, up 18 per cent, and November at 1.41 million TEU, up 19 per cent.

The first half of 2011 is estimated at 7.2 million TEU, up five per cent from the first half of 2010.

"Global Port Tracker has been consistently accurate in its projections of a sharp slowdown from the growth rates of last year, and the current 6.2 per cent growth to 15.7 million TEU forecast for 2011 remains realistic under the circumstances. Imports during 2010 totalled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 per cent increase over 2009," said the NRF statement.

"The low level of inventories-to-sales ratios suggest that import container flows will continue at their suppressed levels for the summer," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. "On the bright side, there will be no imminent boom or bust in volumes as we experienced in 2007 and 2010."

Global Port Tracker covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah and Houston.

Source : HKSG.