CARRIERS plan to launch new transpacific services charging higher rates from April based on optimistic growth forecasts for in 2011, reports maritime analyst Alphaliner.But at the same time, utilisation has dropped to below 90 per cent since October to an overall 89 per cent in January against 96 per cent in the same month of 2010. Shippers say extra capacity afloat should keep rates down.
Big Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) carriers report reduced load factors of 88 per cent to the US west coast and 95 per cent to the east coast. Alphaliner attributes this slack utilisation to a 25 per cent year-on-year increase in capacity deployed on the transpacific in January and February.
The situation will continue to worsen with an estimated 14 per cent annual capacity increase expected, said Alphaliner in line with more than 140 newbuildings to be delivered this year.
While shippers question the need for higher rates, transpacific carriers claim that rate hikes planned for this year are justified by growing cargo demand.
"Advance bookings and market data suggest a return to robust trade flows by late spring and early summer, with a possibility that vessel space and equipment will be tight at times leading into the peak season," said the TSA.
Representing leading carriers operating on Asia-US trades, the TSA is confident cargo demand will improve in 2011 as the US economy recovers and this growth would absorb new capacity entering the market, reports London's Containerisation International.
TSA says the Far East-US cargo volume increased 15.8 per cent year on year in January due to earlier Chinese New Year in the first week of February. This led to a positive transpacific trade volume forecast with a growth of seven to eight per cent this year, following the increase of more than 15 per cent in 2010.
This optimism is supported by London shipping consultants, Clarkson, whose analysts expect a 9.7 per cent increase in container demand in 2011.
Source : HKSG, 15.02.11.
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