[080911.EN.SEA] CMA CGM Joins Maersk's Positive Outlook For Modestly Good Year

MARSEILLES' CMA CGM, the world's third largest ocean carrier, has said in its interim 2011 statement that it believes "2011 should be a positive year, barring any unforeseen events in today's highly unstable global economy."

This view is in line with Maersk's earlier projection of six to eight per cent growth in container shipping industry in 2011, saying that "a modestly positive result" was expected for its container shipping business.

The forecast is based on the belief that global cargo growth for the rest of the year will continue and that the Asia-Europe freight rates have hit bottom, said London's Containerisation International.

Agreeing, SeaAxis Macro analyst Philippe Hoehlinger said: "Macroeconomic variables that are most correlated to cargo trade growth and load factors provide a slightly deteriorated picture as compared to three months ago, but the overall picture remains generally strong.

In the latest SeaAxis report on the current third quarter, Mr Hoelinger said: "The weak US dollar and the country's larger trade deficit usually correlate with strong demand. Inventory levels in the US remain average, which correlates with average demand growth. Finally, although China's exports to the US have been decelerating, they remain at decent levels, without raising red flags yet."

The report said the situation is expected to improve on intra-Asia trades and on the transpacific in the third quarter with the successful introduction of deferred peak season surcharges.

It said the outlook should also slightly improve on the Europe-Asia trade, but intra-Europe and transatlantic markets will remain sluggish.

"Based on the latest real GDP figures available for the second quarter of 2011 and extrapolating over the remaining part of the year, we now expect real GDP growth to be 3.9 per cent in 2011 (as compared to 4.5 per cent as per IMF latest update) and 4.3 per cent in 2011 (also 4.5 per cent as per IMF latest predictions). 

These rates should translate into cargo trade volume growths of 8.5 per cent and 11.2 per cent in 2011 and 2012 respectively, which remain decent," said the report.

Source : HKSG, 01.09.11.