What recovery there has been, said HSBC analysts Azura Shahrim and Mark Webb, has been short-haul intra-Asia trade rather than on the mainstay Asia-US and Asia-Europe routes.
HSBC forecasts Asia-Europe rates to grow 35 per cent in 2010 over 2009 after dropping a 41 per cent in 2009. But predicts a seven per cent fall in 2011 "as a greater number of larger size vessels arrive into the market."
The bank's report suggests investors sell overvalued liner stocks, saying they are selling at 1.2 times book value, though it makes an exception of Hong Kong's Orient Overseas (International) Limited (OOIL).
"We believe the only stock worth buying among our container coverage is OOIL," saying it is better positioned because of a decision to dispose of its property development business.
The analysts said growth in the major east-west trades "may be mainly due to restocking activity and will slow down in the coming months."
But oversupply clouded the horizon. "We estimate a 46 per cent gap in 2010 between fleet capacity and demand. The idle fleet, at 10 per cent, is still triple the level of previous downturns.
We calculate that vessel utilisation will only return to 2007 levels by 2016. Low entry barriers and commoditised products also create a poor industry structure," they said.
The report said liner carriers operating in the transpacific "will be able to push through higher rates when signing new annual contracts in May." After Asia-US rates fell 24 per cent in 2009, HSBC is predicted they will rise 20 per cent in 2010 and four per cent in 2011.
"Similar to Asia-Europe trade route, we are not expecting rates to recover strongly in 2010-11 given the supply overhang. Firstly, a number of liners (at least five major liners) have announced plans to re-introduce and/or bring new tonnage into the transpacific trade route," the report said.
Source : HKSG, 10.04.10.
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