HSBC expects vaccine distribution to support
cargo rates at Asia-Pacific carriers in 2021, with Cathay Pacific, China
Airlines, Korean Air, and China's 'big three' (Air China, China Eastern
Airlines and China Southern Airlines) to be the main beneficiaries.
In
a research note, HSBC estimates that coronavirus vaccine distribution will add
just 2 per cent to global air cargo demand, but that this will have a "meaningful impact" on airfreight rates given that bellyhold
capacity on passenger jets isn't likely to recover until the second half of
2021 or even 2022.
It
noted that Cathay, Korean, and China Airlines traditionally have the biggest
exposure to cargo by revenue, in the region of 20-30 per cent in 2019. It
estimated that in 2020 profits in the cargo area will help Cathay and China's
'big three' offset 9-30 per cent of the losses caused by weakness in the rest
of their businesses.
"So
far in 2020, airlines globally have faced their worst crisis ever with
passenger traffic collapsing in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic," it
said.
"Airfreight
traffic too declined but at a slower pace vs passenger traffic while the
decline in the passenger aircraft belly cargo capacity tightened the supply
situation. Consequently, air cargo freight rates on certain key routes from
Asia have on average risen over 50 per cent year on year for the year to
date."
It
added that vaccine distribution in the Asia-Pacific will be domestic and
regional, given that most Asia-Pacific vaccine work is taking place in Mainland
China and India, with some work taking place in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
More
generally, HSBC expects that airlines with strong domestic exposure, such as
Chinese airlines and Indian carriers such as IndiGo and Spicejet, will be the
first to return to profitability.
"Among
the airlines exposed to international traffic, those with a high cargo exposure
would likely be the next to recover," it added.
"Within
our coverage, we expect Cathay Pacific to benefit given its 22 per cent revenue
exposure (pre-pandemic) to cargo and significant sensitivity to the recovery of
international air travel. Airlines with mainly international passenger exposure
will likely recover the last."
Source
: HKSG / Photo : Freight News.
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