[200212.EN.BIZ] Global Economic Survey Shows Recovery, But Asian Results Expected To Lag

A MAJORITY of the 1,129 World Economic Survey experts polled in the eurozone - 57 per cent - and western Europe - 53 per cent and eastern Europe - 47 per cent, expect "great damage" to the world economy in the mid-to-long term, but a higher number in other regions believe a collapse would be only "moderately damaging".

After two quarters of successive decline, the global economic climate has begun to improve, the survey indicated.

This is the result of a quarterly global survey published by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the Munich-based Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) that polled business and academic experts in 120 countries.

But the outlook for Asia is darker according to ICC secretary general Jean-Guy Carrier. "In the US economy, the six-month outlook is certainly more positive than it was three months ago," he said.

This offsets the economic climate in Asia, which is pointing to an economic slowdown, after significantly worse appraisals of the current situation further pushed the climate indicator below its long-term average, Mr Carrier said.

"The latest results confirm that the cyclical downswing of the world economy is still under way," said Ifo chief economist Gernot Nerb. "But they also confirm the now-prevailing view that the downswing will be relatively short and moderate in most countries and not devolve into a recession."

While the western European economic outlook has brightened, the six-month forecast remains uncertain yet the prevailing view is that a eurozone collapse and return to national currencies can be avoided.

"This view, coupled with the brightening economic outlook in some other parts of the world, particularly in the US, allows us to reasonably hope that the western European economy will start picking up in the second half of 2012," Mr Nerb said.

Source : HKSG.