THE
first quarter of the year was decimated by the outbreak of the coronavirus,
however, Maersk foresees a V-shaped recovery could occur after normal factory
production levels return in China,
provided outbreaks of the virus around the world do not become more widespread
in the second quarter.
Maersk is looking towards April
for a possible recovery after a weak first quarter thanks to the fallout of the
Wuhan coronavirus.
Speaking in a conference call
following the release of the carrier's full-year results, chief executive Soren Skou said that while it was difficult to get a full
sense of the impact of the coronavirus on trade, the first quarter would be "significantly
impacted" by the extended factory closures in China, reported London's Lloyd's List.
"Factories are slowly
returning to production but we estimate that they are operating at 50-60 per
cent of capacity, which will be ramping up to around 90 per cent of capacity by
the first week of March," he said.
The consensus is that the
outbreak would peak over the coming weeks, with data showing the number of new
infections decreasing.
"That means that we could
expect a trajectory similar to the one we saw during SARS, but with a larger
magnitude, since China's impact on global supply chains is much bigger today
and China's role in the global economy is much bigger."
That, he added, would imply a
V-shaped recovery.
"We will have very weak
exports in February and March, then hopefully a strong rebound in April,"
Mr Skou said.
But there were still
uncertainties and the prognosis implied no new outbreaks in other countries
outside China, he added.
"The next two to three weeks
will tell us what the trend is. The long-term outlook will depend on how long
the outbreak lasts."
Maersk cancelled 50 sailings in
addition to those it would have usually cancelled for the Lunar New Year
slowdown, Mr Skou said. Idling ships has an effect on the company's bottom
line.
"When ships are idle we are
not spending money on fuel or port costs, but we are still depreciating and
paying charter fees," Mr Skou said. "We will not be able to mitigate
the loss of volumes with costs on a one-to-one basis so we will have an
increased negative effect in the short term."
Even with the capacity
reductions, Maersk has lowered its full-year earnings guidance by US$200 million
to $5.5 billion, largely as a result of coronavirus, but also taking into
account the impact of IMO 2020 and wider macro trends.
"Coronavirus affects all of
our businesses, such as terminal ventures in China and the significant
logistics and warehousing business there," Mr Skou said.
Pent-up demand should help Maersk
and other carriers should the outbreak retreat over the coming weeks, leading
to an "excess of exports" in April.
"Inventories are being run
down, both of finished goods and semi-finished goods," Mr Skou said.
"Many manufacturers in Southeast Asia rely on China for parts and
semi-finished goods. If we do end up with a V-shaped recovery then we will see
an overshoot in the latter part of the second quarter."
Yet, if the coronavirus continues
to spread unabated, there would be an even bigger impact.
"If a recovery does not
happen then it will impact global economic growth, which is the main outcome we
are worrying about."
Source : HKSG.
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