DREWRY Supply Chain advisors say
more container shipping alliances can be expected indicated by the planned
merger of the Grand Alliance's and New World Alliance's schedules between Asia
and the east coast of North America.
But Drewry also warned that the consequences include less shipper choice and potential anti-trust infringements.
The London shipping consultants described the planned move by Grand Alliance carriers Hapag-Lloyd, NYK and OOCL and New World Alliance ocean liners APL, MOL and HMM is "probably the tip of the iceberg", adding that "much more is likely from other alliances/consortia over the next 12 months", according to its research.
"This is because there are still another 47 vessels over 10,000 TEU due to be delivered in 2013, most of which will be deployed in the Asia/Northern Europe trade lane, as the Asia to Mediterranean trade lane is already hopelessly over-tonnaged," a statement said.
"This could result in a massive 9.8 per cent increase in effective capacity, although, this may be reduced through further slow steaming and temporary sailing cancellations. As a consequence, a possible 49 vessels averaging 8,123 TEU will need to be cascaded out into other trade lanes."
It said that 10 of these ships could come from the GA and NWA. Since their services between Asia and Europe were merged into the G6 a year ago, its members have taken delivery of 10 vessels over 10,000 TEU, with another 17 containerships averaging 13,354 TEU due out this year.
There is a strong possibility the vessels could be deployed on the trades between Asia and the east coast of North America. The GA operates four weekly services on the route, and the NWA three. All of these services include one loop via the Suez Canal, with the rest passing through the Panama Canal.
The G6 is preparing to remove one of its seven strings, "so the most logical merger would be the two that pass through Suez, due to the size restrictions of the Panama Canal", the authors of the maritime research said.
In January the GA's AEX service to/from South East Asia deployed 10 ships averaging 5,931 TEU, and the NWA's SZX service to/from South East Asia was deploying seven vessels averaging 4,605 TEU. "Merge the two, and a convenient home for the 10 vessels cascaded out of the Asia-Northern Europe trade lane would be found.
"Apply the same principle to the other 39 belonging to competing lines, and it is easy to see why more services are likely to be merged by the other alliances elsewhere, and new alliances formed. Not many carriers will be able to replace vessels averaging less than 5,500 TEU with ships over 8,000 TEU on their own.
"There are several consequences of this, including less shipper choice and potential anti-trust infringements. Shippers will see their loyalty to ocean carriers sharing the same vessels tested even more. And the market shares of the new alliances may become a problem, particularly to/from Europe where a 30 per cent ceiling is imposed by the European Union consortia regulations."
But Drewry also warned that the consequences include less shipper choice and potential anti-trust infringements.
The London shipping consultants described the planned move by Grand Alliance carriers Hapag-Lloyd, NYK and OOCL and New World Alliance ocean liners APL, MOL and HMM is "probably the tip of the iceberg", adding that "much more is likely from other alliances/consortia over the next 12 months", according to its research.
"This is because there are still another 47 vessels over 10,000 TEU due to be delivered in 2013, most of which will be deployed in the Asia/Northern Europe trade lane, as the Asia to Mediterranean trade lane is already hopelessly over-tonnaged," a statement said.
"This could result in a massive 9.8 per cent increase in effective capacity, although, this may be reduced through further slow steaming and temporary sailing cancellations. As a consequence, a possible 49 vessels averaging 8,123 TEU will need to be cascaded out into other trade lanes."
It said that 10 of these ships could come from the GA and NWA. Since their services between Asia and Europe were merged into the G6 a year ago, its members have taken delivery of 10 vessels over 10,000 TEU, with another 17 containerships averaging 13,354 TEU due out this year.
There is a strong possibility the vessels could be deployed on the trades between Asia and the east coast of North America. The GA operates four weekly services on the route, and the NWA three. All of these services include one loop via the Suez Canal, with the rest passing through the Panama Canal.
The G6 is preparing to remove one of its seven strings, "so the most logical merger would be the two that pass through Suez, due to the size restrictions of the Panama Canal", the authors of the maritime research said.
In January the GA's AEX service to/from South East Asia deployed 10 ships averaging 5,931 TEU, and the NWA's SZX service to/from South East Asia was deploying seven vessels averaging 4,605 TEU. "Merge the two, and a convenient home for the 10 vessels cascaded out of the Asia-Northern Europe trade lane would be found.
"Apply the same principle to the other 39 belonging to competing lines, and it is easy to see why more services are likely to be merged by the other alliances elsewhere, and new alliances formed. Not many carriers will be able to replace vessels averaging less than 5,500 TEU with ships over 8,000 TEU on their own.
"There are several consequences of this, including less shipper choice and potential anti-trust infringements. Shippers will see their loyalty to ocean carriers sharing the same vessels tested even more. And the market shares of the new alliances may become a problem, particularly to/from Europe where a 30 per cent ceiling is imposed by the European Union consortia regulations."
Source : HKSG, 05.03.13.
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