DESPITE the
current wave of mergers, London's Drewry Maritime Research
doubts much good will come of further consolidation because it would only lead
to the sector's massive overcapacity falling into fewer hands.
Yet with 55
per cent of the market in the hands of five top carriers this poses an
existential threat to the numerous yet much smaller surviving carriers, now
left with little option but respond with further consolidation.
But such
tendencies are countered by subdued valuations, making such options less
appealing, said Drewry.
The union of
CMA CGM and APL, and the expected Cosco-CSCL merger help the newly expanded
liner companies close the gap on Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Co at
the top of the rankings.
This is will
mean that the top five largest carriers will control 55 per cent of the world's
container fleet.
In the case
of CMA CGM's takeover of NOL, Drewry said that while both parties can claim
some victory in the valuation of the sale, there are signs that the deal is
merely a one-off.
CMA CGM will
purchase NOL for US$2.4 billion, or 96 per cent of the book value of the
company's shareholders' equity of $2.5 billion, while NOL's shareholders will
secure a 49 per cent premium on the share value before the company announced it
was engaged in sale talks in July.
This book
price is low in comparison with the two major deals concluded a decade ago for
P&O Nedlloyd and CP Ships, but is on the high side when set against the
current industry average of 80 per cent, said Drewry.
"Nonetheless,
selling below book value is hardly likely to encourage other owners to rush to
sell and neither have NOL's peers seen any significant uplift in their share
valuation, something that usually occurs when further M&A in a sector is
anticipated," said Drewry.
Drewry
highlighted that in 2005 the book price multiples were much higher as those
deals followed several years of record profits for carriers.
Source :
HKSG.
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