[051011.EN.SEA] Arab Spring Chaos Creates Perfect Petri Dish For Piracy: Israeli Analysts

FAILED STATE conditions which spawned piracy in Somalia are present in the "Arab Spring" disorders sweeping the Middle East, and will likely create a breeding ground for more pirates, particularly in Yemen, say Israeli defence analysts.

"While instability in Yemen would not lead inevitably to increased piracy, it is a distinct possibility, says a paper by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University.

"Egyptian authorities arrested 26 people for planning to attack ships in the Suez Canal and oil pipelines in 2009," said INSS researchers Yoel Guzansky, Jonathan Schachter and Gallia Lindenstrauss.

Piracy, terrorism, and the growing threat from Iranian weapons smuggling and naval muscle flexing around the Horn of Africa are compounding problems for international shipping, said the paper.

"Iran is taking advantage of piracy to justify its increasing naval presence in the Red Sea vicinity," they said.

"These Iranian efforts to project power have turned the waters around the Horn of Africa into another area of maritime friction. The result is that other navies operating in the area are now combating both piracy and Iranian weapons smuggling," said the paper.

"Tactical measures have reduced - that is, displaced - the number of pirate attacks in the Red Sea in recent years. But Yemen has been racked by sectarian and tribal violence, and in the last two years, it has become the home of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

"While the effective management and smooth operation of the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline remain a clear Egyptian interest, the country is experiencing its greatest political challenge in over half a century.

"Egypt is struggling with a restive Bedouin population in the Sinai Peninsula. In May 2011, an Egyptian security official claimed that over 400 Bedouin, Palestinian, and foreign Arab members of al Qaeda were in the peninsula. While Egypt dedicates significant resources to securing the Suez Canal, it is possible that the canal or the SUMED pipeline could become targets for future attacks.

Iran's threats to close the Straits of Hormuz to shipping and stopping Gulf oil have increased in frequency and intensity with Iranian officials warning they would block the straits in response to any act of aggression, which can be interpreted as pressure to remove their nuclear facilities, said the report.

"Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari warned that US warships are easy prey for the Iranian navy. Iran also threatened to respond if its ships' cargo is subjected to inspections (a step included in a 2010 Security Council resolution on Iran). Iran ended the "Great Prophet 6" manoeuvres in July by firing several supersonic coast-to-sea missiles against moving targets near the Hormuz Straits to demonstrate that the country is capable of disrupting, if not blocking, the straits and will not hesitate to do so," the paper said.

Iran has made significant efforts in developing its relations with Kenya, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Tanzania, and the Comoro Islands, said the paper. "In addition, it dispatched ships to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, and reportedly for the first time, sent submarines to the Red Sea. The Iranian threat also has implications for the Black Sea region and the Turkish Straits," the paper said.

Source : HKSG.