CHINA's
ports and shipping firms are gearing
up for a second round of supply
chain disruptions as the spread of the
coronavirus pandemic globally strangles off international demand.
With Beijing
reporting only sporadic domestic transmission of the
coronavirus since March, workers have been allowed to return to posts,
factories are restarting and ports are rushing to clear a backlog of cargoes.
But with virus outbreaks now
overwhelming healthcare systems and shutting logistics channels in other major
economies, exporters and industry analysts warn that global demand for products
made and shipped out of China is likely to dive, reported Reuters.
"We expect the near-term
impact on trade growth in coming quarters likely to be the worst ever, as
economies stall and external demand faces imminent collapse on large scale
quarantine measures across major economies," said IHS Markit vice president
Rahul Kapoor.
China's container processing
volumes declined by 10.6 per cent in the first two months of 2020 compared to
the year before, while exports were down 17.2 per cent.
And
while volumes rebounded in March as manufacturing and logistics operations
rebooted, exporters fear that outbound shipments may be in for an even steeper
slump in the months ahead.
"There is widespread concern
among ports and shipping companies that the coronavirus overseas will hamper
demand and in return take a toll on production in China," said China Ports & Harbours
Association secretary general Ding Li.
The export slump could drag on
throughout 2020, said Capital
Economics senior China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard, estimating China's second-quarter exports could
contract as much as 30 per cent year on year.
Some closely tracked cargo
metrics are already showing the impact of slowing demand in key centres.
Container vessel utilisation
rates from Shanghai to north America and Europe were at 85 per cent last week,
down by 10 percentage points from a week earlier, data tracked by Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed.
Freight rates also dipped, with European
routes down 3.1 per cent weekly as of March 27 to US$764 per TEU, and routes to
the US west coast are down 2.2 per cent at $1,515 per TEU.
Mr Ding added it may take time
for cargo-handling data to show the full extent of the global demand contraction
as many ports are still clearing backlogs.
Daily container handling volumes
at China's biggest port in Shanghai last week hit 110,000 TEU, equivalent to 90
per cent of pre-virus levels, and other ports are also trying to rush through
shipments to overseas clients before more stringent movement restrictions take
effect.
That demand outlook uncertainty
is also weighing on material markets, with the price of manufacturing-grade hot-rolled coil steel SHHCcv1 - used in automobiles and appliances - falling to
four-month lows this week.
Textile and clothing
manufacturers are also feeling the effects of a drop in international demand.
"Many exporters were
notified by clients of order cancellations for the next two months... leading
to increasing pressure on upstream firms' supply chain," said a statement
from the China
National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC).
A
CNTAC survey showed that 37 per cent of 242 companies reported export order
cancellations last week, while the
number of firms reporting export orders at less than 50 per cent of pre-virus
levels rose by 11.4 percentage points to 26.4 per cent.
China's port association expects
container handling volumes in China to fall five to ten per cent in the second
quarter from a year ago, while imports of industrial materials such as coal and
ores are also expected to slow alongside falling domestic production.
Source : HKSG / Photo : Port Technology International.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar