25 April 2020

[250420.EN.BIZ] Coronavirus Counter Measures Could Drive 'Catastrophic Drop' in Rates


SEA-INTELLIGENCE data analysis shows that within the past week the number of blank deep-sea sailings rose from 45 to 212, with multiple services with cancellations lasting until the end of June. Most void sailings are clustered within the coming five to six weeks.

The largest capacity withdrawal is seen in the Asia-Europe trade "where we will now enter a four-week period with 29-34 per cent of the capacity having been removed from the market", a company statement said.

It warned that the financial impact on shipping lines could also be "profound, although the magnitude to a large degree depends on the carriers' pricing discipline going forward.

"In the most benign scenario, the carriers experience a 10 per cent volume decline in 2020 due to the pandemic, but manage to prevent any material decline in freight rates. In this case, their profits will decline by US$6 billion compared to 2019 and cause all main carriers combined to lose $0.8 billion this year.

"In the worst case the carriers will see freight rates decline to the same degree they experienced during the financial crisis in 2009. In this case the main carriers will collectively lose a staggering $23 billion in 2020.

"It is therefore clear that the primary purpose of the capacity reductions should be seen as an effort to prevent a catastrophic drop in rate levels. The cost savings are also important, as they too are measured in the billions, but pale in comparison to the impact declining rate levels will have.

"Hence the development in freight rates will be important in the coming weeks, as that will determine the degree to which we will see even more aggressive capacity reductions," said

Source : HKSG / Photo : DHL Logistics.

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