THE air cargo industry is slowly rebuilding the
block space agreement (BSA) structure scrapped by airlines when travel bans
grounded half the available capacity in late March, but shippers looking for
fixed rates out of Asia this year will pay premium prices for such guarantees.
Airlines are beginning to extend the rate validity offered
on some major trades to three months, a huge improvement from the price and
space guarantees of one week or even less when all the passenger belly capacity
was pulled out of service overnight at the end of the first quarter of 2020.
Although much of that passenger capacity remains on the
ground, forwarders are beginning to get on top of the demand flows, locking in
space through the extensive use of charter flights and entering strictly
controlled BSAs with airlines that are deploying passenger aircraft in greater
numbers as all-cargo carriers.
"At the start of this crisis, maximum validity of the
rates was only one week, then it increased to two weeks, and now we are getting
to months," Jan Kleine-Lasthhues, chief operating officer for air freight
at Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said. "It depends on the carrier and
trade lane, but we are at the point where we can negotiate longer rate
validity. But the market remains unpredictable, so on longer fixed contract
rates, carriers will price risks in."
Passenger aircraft grounded by travel restrictions
introduced at the end of the first quarter to slow the spread of the Covid-19
pandemic will not be back at scale until at least 2024, according to the
International Air Transport Association (IATA), and major airlines have slashed
the size of their fleets to accommodate a long-term decline in demand, reports IHS
Media.
With so much capacity out of the market and volumes
remaining elevated due to sustained demand for personal protective
equipment (PPE) and electronics, air cargo has
essentially been operating under what would normally be considered "peak
season" conditions since March. This imbalance of supply and demand pushed
spot rates up to record highs in April and May on both the trans-Pacific and
Asia-Europe trades, as well as on the trans-Atlantic. While the rates declined
sharply in June as PPE demand dropped off, the tight capacity kept rates
elevated compared with last year before rising into the end-of-year peak
season.
With air freight capacity in such short supply, shippers
have few options at the moment, Mr Kleine-Lasthhues said. "If you want
guaranteed capacity for next year, the only way is to negotiate a BSA or
charter. On some charter trades, you can negotiate long-term rates with
customers that want to be on the safe side during the [Covid-19] vaccine
rollout and are willing to buy fixed allocations."
The limited available air cargo capacity will be even more
constrained as Covid-19 vaccines are distributed around the world. The
Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was approved in the UK in early December, and
approvals for other vaccines are expected to follow. However, Niall van de Wouw,
managing director of CLIVE Data Services, said the additional demand could be a
positive development for shippers, because it will force airlines to deploy
additional capacity.
Source : HKSG.
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