HIGH
returns from container terminals over the last 10-15 years are
threatened by rising competition at a time when investment in terminal capacity
is needed to cope with mega ships, says a Drewry Maritime Research report.
"In
a low-growth demand environment, the deployment of bigger ships results in
lower-frequency services and greater volume peaks. For terminal operators,
costs are increasing while demand is static," said the London research
house analysts.
The
number of ports and terminals that can handle large ships is limited and
alliances are likely to change in the near future due to carrier acquisitions,
which could lead to increased volatility.
"The
industry is seeing average and largest ship sizes increase in leaps and bounds
- something that was largely absent in the period up to 2009," said
Drewry.
"Cascading
of vessels from one trade lane to another means that all ports are seeing
substantial increases in vessel sizes.
Low
growth, rising competition among ports and the concentration of liner
bargaining power through mergers and alliances, has seen margins shrink.
While
container port throughputs grew at a compound annual growth rate of 11 per cent
between 2001 and the 2008/2009 financial crisis, since then growth has slowed
to five per cent.
"In
2015, global container port growth was only around one per cent and in 2016 it
is not likely to exceed 2.5 per cent," said Drewry.
"For
reasons beyond terminal operators' control, costs are rising markedly while
revenue is increasing much more slowly," said Drewry.
This
will mean in future that terminal operators and shipping lines may cooperate
more to mitigate the negative impact of larger ships and alliances, concluded
the analyst.
Another
alternative is that terminal operators may refuse to invest in new capacity
because the returns were insufficient for their shareholders. "This is an
extreme option that will in effect leave shipping lines with nowhere to berth
their large ships," said Drewry.
Source
: HKSG.
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