HSBC Bank's latest Global
Connections Trade Forecast and Trade Confidence survey shows that 64
per cent of respondents believe trade volumes will rise over the next six
months, representing a decline of 11 percentage points compared to the report's
findings for the first half of 2015.
Singapore
and Hong Kong suffered the largest declines in market confidence with more than
20 points for each. However, Asian economies will be the main drivers of global
trade over the medium-term, with so-called "south-south" flows
becoming the fastest growing trade corridors, according to the survey.
Brazil
and Russia have been weak in 2015, but like China, HSBC said it sees the
downturn as cyclical rather than structural.
"Despite
the near-term challenges facing emerging markets, many of these economies
benefit from strong economic fundamentals, meaning they are likely to be an
important driver of global economic growth and trade over the medium
term," the survey was cited as saying, reported Atlanta area Air Cargo
World.
For
this reason, the report is optimistic that stabilisation in these countries
could lay the foundation for a moderate uptick in world trade in 2016, with
HSBC forecasting import volumes in the US and Western Europe will expand by
five to six per cent in 2016.
The
banking giant anticipates growth in global trade to recover to three per cent
in 2016, up from its forecast of one per cent growth in volume terms for 2015,
picking up to five per cent a year by 2018-20.
Source
: HKSG.
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