A
SLOWDOWN in US new car sales and the threat of trade war between the EU and
America means trouble for transatlantic container trade, according
to
London's Drewry Maritime Research analysts.
After
expanding 5.4 per cent in the first half of 2019, westbound transatlantic
container shipments only increased 0.5 per cent in the third quarter -
the lowest quarterly growth since the last three months of 2016, reports American
Shipper.
However, a pickup in demand at the start of the
fourth quarter saw the trade enjoy record year-to-date growth of 3.7 per cent
through October, with US, Canada and Mexico imports up 4.4 per cent, 1.5 per
cent and 2.8 per cent respectively, compared to 2018.
One reason for the slowdown during the second half of the
year was a drop-off in shipments of motor vehicle components to US plants, with
American new car sales still in retreat from the 2015 record of 17.5 million
purchases.
"Despite a strong economy, falling unemployment and
rising consumer confidence, there has been a gradual decline in numbers sold
and this year the figure is likely to total 16.9 million," said Drewry.
"One explanation for this trend is that after many
years of strong sales, many American consumers are now driving vehicles that do
not need to be replaced so often. Newer vehicles tend to be more durable and
hold up longer than cars made even a decade or two earlier."
The demand outlook on the transatlantic headhaul trade is
also being muddied by the threat of an escalating trade war. At the beginning of October,
the World Trade Organisation (WTO) authorised the US to apply new tariffs of 25
per cent on US$7.5 billion of EU imports following a 15-year dispute over
illegal aircraft subsidies granted to Airbus, the European aerospace company.
"The new tariffs went into effect on October 18 and
thus between the WTO's decision and application date there was precious little
time to fast-forward any shipments, unless it was by air freight," said
Drewry.
The
analyst believes tit-for-tat tariffs could continue in 2020. It notes that the
US had originally sought permission to apply the tariffs to $11 billion of
goods, which would have affected items ranging from "wine, cheese,
yoghurts and olive oil to fine wool suits, jumpers, bed linen and even women's
nightwear".
Moreover, the EU has threatened to retaliate against US
goods. "The WTO is expected to decide sometime next year on what tariffs
can be imposed against the US for its subsidies to Boeing," noted the
analyst.
Source : HKSG / Illustration : 123RF.com.
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