SHIPS operating in the Gulf region should be vigilant
following the US air strike in Iraq that killed Iran's General Qassem Soleimani,
according to United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations, which provides security
information to merchant vessels operating in high-risk areas.
About a third of the world's oil transported on tankers
moves through the Strait of Hormuz, bordered by Iran to the north. The risk to
shipping in one of the world's key oil-producing regions is set to rise
following the strike that killed the top Iranian commander, who led the Revolutionary
Guards Quds Force.
Iran vowed "severe retaliation" for the attack,
and the episode ratchets up already-high tensions in the region. "Whenever
there's tension in the region, the risk premium increases," said Olivier
Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH, reports
Bloomberg.
In October, daily earnings for supertankers on the
benchmark route to China from the Middle East soared to more than US$300,000
a day, after Iran said missiles hit one of its vessels in the Red Sea.
That followed attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure a month earlier. US
re-imposed sanctions on Iran in late 2018, and separate American sanctions on
some vessels from China also contributed to an increase in shipping rates last
year.
So far, freight rates and insurance premiums haven't moved
much in response to the conflict, said Stefanos Kazantzis, McQuilling Services
LLC's senior adviser for shipping and finance. "Until there is
another attack or there is some retaliation from Iran that affects oil
infrastructure and notably maritime logistics, these prices will keep
steady."
US
President Donald Trump authorised the strike that killed Genearal
Soleimani, who led proxy militias that extended Iran's power across the
Middle East, the Defense Department said in a statement last Thursday. Secretary
of State Michael Pompeo said the attack was in response to an imminent
threat, while providing few additional details. The US embassy in Baghdad urged
its citizens to leave the country.
Fearnley
Securities AS said it doesn't expect Iran to close the strait
because of China's reliance on its crude but risk premiums will be higher for
now. The event could "trigger attacks on tankers lifting crude from
US-allied countries," such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE, according to Fearnleys
analyst Espen Fjermestad. It could also prompt demand for restocking
inventories, he said.
For now, markets are waiting to see how Iran responds.
"Overall, it remains too early to assess the market
impact, though increased concerns on cargo availability should likely keep the
market well-supported," Clarksons Platou Securities AS said in a note.
Source : HKSG.
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