[131111.EN.SEA] US East Coast Container Growth Beats West Coast, Says Global Port Tracker

AFTER a robust start to 2011, US containerised imports fell in the second and third quarters, but not nearly so badly on the east coast as on the west, according to the Global Port Tracker's monthly report for the National Retail Federation.

First quarter import container growth on the west coast was up 6.9 per cent to 2.3 million TEU year on year against the east coast's rise of 9.1 per cent to 1.3 million TEU.

But in the second quarter, the west coast was down 1.3 per cent while east coast continued to grow three per cent. In the third quarter, the west coast fell a further 5.9 per cent to 2.8 million TEU while the east coast continued to rise, if only by 1.5 per cent to 1.5 million TEU year on year.

Port tracker expects volumes to decline from October to the first quarter of 2012 and perk up in April. Overall, US retail container ports experienced falling import cargo volumes in the autumn after the very slight increase in September, said Hackett Associates, the firm that produces the report.

In September, the US ports followed by Port Tracker handled 1.33 million TEU, up 0.4 per cent from August, making "September the busiest month of the year as retailers rushed to stock stores for the holidays". But compared to the volumes of the same period of 2010, the imported boxes in September still decreased 0.6 per cent.

From October onwards to the first quarter of 2012, negative growth is expected. October was projected at 1.32 million TEU, down 2.3 per cent year on year. November is forecast at 1.21 million TEU, down 1.9 per cent from year on year, and December is estimated at 1.11 million TEU, down 3.3 per cent year on year.

For 2012, January is expected to bring 1.1 million TEU, down 8.7 per cent from January 2011; February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is expected to reach 996,816 TEU, down 9.4 per cent and March volume is forecast to produce 1.08 million TEU, down 0.6 per cent.

The total for 2011 is forecast at 14.76 million TEU, only 10,000 TEU more than the 2010 total of 14.75 million TEU.

For holiday sales in November and December, a total of $465.6 billion is expected, up 2.8 per cent year on year.

Though year-on-year declines are expected, the report remains optimistic for the second quarter of 2012.

Said Hackett Associates' Ben Hackett: "Months come in four and five week chunks and can give misleading information when looked at in isolation. Comparing them on a year-on-year basis is also dangerous as 2010 was such a strong year. We continue to believe that the economy will pick up speed - assuming there is no euro meltdown - by March or April of next year."

Said National Retail Federation vice president Jonathan Gold: "Growth this holiday season is expected to be average - but given all of the economic factors, that's not necessarily negative. We are continuing to see growth. Businesses are keeping inventory lean, filling their stores with discounts and promotions. Consumers are still operating with great caution, focusing on finding the best deals."

Port Tracker surveys Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah and Houston.

Source : HKSG, 11.11.11.