THE global economy is a crucial factor in determining the direction of the container shipping market, as it impacts on the number of export volumes that are shipped out to consumers across the world, and for the shipping lines, this then reflects on their vessel utilisation levels.
Today in The Container Shipping Manager we will look at the level of confidence in the global economy going forward and what implications that has for global trade volumes and ultimately to what degree shipping capacity will be utilised based on the current outlook.
First, let’s look at the GDP growth projections for the full year 2010 and 2011 as an indicator for the health of the global economy going forward, as shown in the table above.
From the above figures it appears that the recovery in 2010 represents a V shaped recovery after global GDP contracted last year. Both China and India have helped lead the way in terms of the bounce back in 2010 with GDP growth in the two countries expected to reach 9.9 and 8.4 per cent respectively.
What is not shown in the table is the strong growth also posted by a number of the Southeast Asian countries as well.
Despite what is expected to amount to a very strong recovery in 2010, next year the growth is expected to be a little more conservative, and the above figures concur with this assertion.
This more conservative expectation for 2011 comes as economists and analysts are still cautious over the lingering issues of unemployment and the generally slow rate of economic recovery in the US and Europe.
At the bottom of the table, we can also see the expectations for world trade growth, which is based on the GDP growth projections.
World trade shrunk by roughly 11 per cent in 2009, but is expected to recover by 11.4 per cent this year, which means not only did the market bounce back, it even surpassed, albeit by less than one per cent, the contraction last year.
Source : CSM, 15.12.10.
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