ANALYST Sea-Intelligence says the demand in the third
quarter for container shipping is expected to contract by 0.1 per cent, pulled
down by the developments in July.
Sea-Intelligence said it had
developed a model to predict medium-term global volume changes, based on the
planned capacity supply of the carriers.
"The methodology we applied
was that the net level of blank sailings serves as a direct indicator of the
underlying volume developments in 2020. Our model tracks the actual
developments as seen during the pandemic from February to June," the
analyst said in its latest issue of Sunday
Spotlight.
CEO
Sea-Intelligence Alan Murphy
said: "While volumes are still looking to decline in July year over year,
we are looking at a prospective year-on-year growth in August and September.
For the entire third quarter, we expect a year-on-year demand contraction, but
by a marginal -O.1%, pulled down by the developments in July."
He added: "While this may
seem counter-intuitive in a pandemic, there are some factors that we believe
are at play here. First is a shift in consumption patterns away from services
to physical goods, which would give rise to a need for stockpiling a large
volume of goods different to what were previously sold.
"Second, restrictions of
travelling and regular outings would potentially fund a higher spending on
consumer products. Lastly, a change in working conditions necessitating a
work-from-home approach has also driven consumer behaviour towards purchases
for furnishing home offices."
Source : HKSG.
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