[EN-SEA] Box Ship Fleet Expected to Grow 6.1pc to 1.08m TEU

THE global containership fleet is expected to increase 6.1 per cent in 2009, representing "the lowest annual growth rate recorded by Alphaliner since 2000," which had predicted at the beginning of the year the world box fleet would expand by a total of 1.85 million TEU by year-end.

It said in its newsletter that deliveries in the first 11 months of the year amounted to 247 vessels that added a total of 986,663 TEU to the world containership fleet.

A further 95,000 TEU is expected to be delivered in December, which would bring the total amount of new capacity delivered in 2009 to 1.08 million TEU.

"Delivery deferrals and record scrapping levels have contributed to the reduction in fleet growth compared to what had been projected earlier," it said, adding that 1.84 million TEU is forecast to be delivered in 2010 "based on current delivery schedules," an increase of 14 per cent compared to the previous year.

"If the next year's scrapping rate is as high as what has been recorded in 2009, this could take out 350,000 TEU, which would bring the growth rate down to 11.4 per cent.

With delivery deferrals and heavy slippage expected to continue next year, the 2010 fleet capacity growth rate could fall to half of what is currently projected," Alphaliner said.

According to Alphaliner data, deliveries of 321 ships of over 1,700 TEU have been deferred or delayed since October 2008, amounting to 2.4 million TEU. Furthermore, deliveries of 58 ships of less than 1,700 TEU have been cancelled.

Alphaliner's latest idle containership survey shows that 572 ships are currently unemployed, amounting to a total of 1.52 million TEU and representing 11.7 per cent of the world containership fleet, which is described as being "the highest idle rate on record.

"It said that "Service rationalisations for the winter slack season contributed to an increase in the number of large ships left without employment," with 74 vessels of 5,000 TEU and now idle.

"The CKYH carriers are at the origin of most of the increase, pushing the idle fleet of the four carriers to a total of 229,000 TEU," it added, with the idle fleet anticipated to continue growing in the next few weeks.

It said the "idle fleet is expected to peak in February before receding in March/April when the spring season starts."

Source : HKSG, 10.12.09.