THE Official Airline Guide's (OAG) latest forecast shows a return to 2007 air freight volumes will not occur until 2013. It's full 10-year forecast for the air cargo market will be issued December 1, reports the Bedfordshire-based Air Cargo World.
"The good news is that as the global economy begins to recover and return to normal growth levels, air freight is likely to once again be a leading indicator of future economic activity," said aviation consultant Marty Graham.
But the depths of global air freight traffic, plunging 15 per cent in 2009 has yet to bottom out with airlines struggling to achieve profit in a climate of overcapacity and low demand.
"Shippers are more willing to accept slower transit to gain the cost advantage maritime or ground shipping offers over air cargo," Mr Graham said.
"Thus air cargo operators must overcome not only a slowdown in global shipment volumes, but also a modal shift caused by shippers looking for ways to reduce logistics costs.
" The report cites conservative GDP growth for the US at less than two per cent for both 2010 and 2011 (after 0.4 per cent and -2.4 per cent GDP growth in 2008 and 2009, respectively) and Europe GDP is described as "pedestrian" at 1.8 per cent a year over the remainder of the forecast period.
"Shippers are more willing to accept slower transit to gain the cost advantage maritime or ground shipping offers over air cargo," said Mr Graham.
"Thus air cargo operators must overcome not only a slowdown in global shipment volumes, but also a modal shift caused by shippers looking for ways to reduce logistics costs," he adds.
UK-based OAG provides travel news, data and ranking service for 900 airlines and 75,000 flights daily and employs 450 staff members over nine worldwide offices.
Source : HKSG, 23.11.09.
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