THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) has
revised its earlier predictions, after projecting airlines globally will make a
net profit of US$10.6 billion on $671 billion in industry revenues in 2013, and
post a combined net profit margin of 1.6 per cent.
IATA forecasts global cargo volumes to rise 2.7 per cent,
yet cargo yields will be flat, indicating commercial aviation is likely to pick
up this year, after two years of falling cargo demand and yields.
"Industry profits are taking a small step in the
right direction," said IATA director general Tony Tyler, former CEO of
Cathay Pacific Airways.
"Against a backdrop of improved optimism for global
economic prospects, passenger demand has been strong and cargo markets are
starting to grow again. The economic optimism is also pushing fuel prices
higher. We are seeing a $12 billion improvement in revenue, and a $9-10 billion
increase in costs, most of which is related to fuel." Fuel accounts for
about 33 per cent of an airline's costs.
Asia Pacific airlines are expected to account for the
largest contribution to industry performance with a $4.2 billion net profit
expected for 2013. Asian carriers comprise 40 per cent of the air cargo market
and will be the biggest beneficiaries of the predicted upturn in cargo demand.
Furthermore, North American, European, Middle East and
African airlines are also likely to see improvement, while Latin American
airlines will suffer a decline.
But IATA warned that considerable risks remain that could
derail any recovery, not least the fall-out from the financial situation in Cyprus
that could re-ignite the Eurozone crisis all over again.
"Chronic anaemic profitability is characteristic
across most of the aviation value chain when compared to other sectors. It will
require more than improving economic conditions to fix. Neither the challenges
nor the benefits of doing so should be underestimated," Mr Tyler said.
Source : HKSG.
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