SEA-INTELLIGENCE
data analysis shows that within
the past week the number of blank
deep-sea sailings rose from 45 to 212, with multiple services with cancellations lasting until the end of
June. Most void sailings are clustered within the coming five to six weeks.
The largest capacity withdrawal
is seen in the Asia-Europe
trade "where we will now enter a four-week
period with 29-34
per cent of the capacity
having been removed from the market", a company statement said.
It warned that the financial
impact on shipping lines could also be "profound, although the magnitude
to a large degree depends on the carriers' pricing discipline going forward.
"In the most benign
scenario, the carriers experience a 10 per cent volume decline in 2020 due to
the pandemic, but manage to prevent any material decline in freight rates. In
this case, their profits will decline by US$6 billion compared to 2019 and
cause all main carriers combined to lose $0.8 billion this year.
"In the worst case the
carriers will see freight rates decline to the same degree they experienced
during the financial crisis in 2009. In this case the main carriers will
collectively lose a staggering $23 billion in 2020.
"It is therefore clear that
the primary purpose of the capacity reductions should be seen as an effort to
prevent a catastrophic drop in rate levels. The cost savings are also
important, as they too are measured in the billions, but pale in comparison to
the impact declining rate levels will have.
"Hence the development in
freight rates will be important in the coming weeks, as that will determine the
degree to which we will see even more aggressive capacity reductions,"
said
Source : HKSG / Photo : DHL Logistics.
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