ANALYST
Sea-Intelligence says container
shipping is expected to see current low demand levels persisting, consequently
leading to high levels of capacity withdrawals.
Demand
for global container shipping is anticipated to take a hit following IMF
recently updating its outlook for the global economy revising a negative 3 per
cent recession for 2020 to a deeper minus 4 per cent.
In terms of world trade, a
previous projection of negative 11 per cent for 2020 is now revised to negative
11.9 per cent, with the 2021 rebound revised down from 8.4 per cent to 8 per
cent.
The Euro area saw GDP growth
projections drop from an already low of negative 7.5 per cent to negative 10.2
per cent, reports Seatrade
Maritime News, Colchester, UK.
"This is especially
concerning since the region will drive demand to fill the newest generation of
ultra-large container vessels," said Alan
Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
The IMF projection - if it turns
out to be correct - is telling us that the current low demand levels are likely
to persist for a while. Consequently, the high levels of capacity withdrawals
are also likely to persist. This is a view that is also backed up by the actual
capacity withdrawals thus far seen in Q3," Mr Murphy said.
The number of blank sailings
announced for Q3 increased from just 13 in week 20 to 76 in week 25 and then to
82 in week 26. However, this development is not uniform across the major
East/West trades.
"On the Asia-North America
West Coast trade lane, there has been a sharp decrease in blank sailings as
blank sailings are getting reinstated. While this is not due to a structural
improvement on the trade, it is more so as a result of either carriers pulling
out too much capacity from the trade in the first instance, or US importers
fulfilling short term needs by using a faster US West Coast service instead of
a US East Coast service with considerably longer transit times," Mr Murphy
explained.
Source : HKSG.
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