According to Drewry's Reefer Shipping Market Annual Report, the level of reefer trade growth forecast last year was temporarily slowed by the economic conditions affecting all shipping sectors, but a return to growth is predicted during 2010, with reefer containers increasingly taking the lion's share.
A year ago, perishable reefer trade in 2008 stood at 156 million tonnes, an increase of 43 million tonnes from 2000, with seaborne accounting for 77 million tonnes, up from 57 million in 2000.
However, the container industry was also impacted by a collapse in global container traffic, and Drewry's Container Market Annual Review & Forecast 2009/10 predicts that 2010 will see companies going bust and new partnerships being formed as the industry adapts to fewer services and the fact that as much as 8-10% of the current global fleet may be in either hot or cold lay-up.
Some minor recovery in trade flows is expected for 2010 (+2.4%), but, together with another hefty dose of capacity injection (+7.9%), the supply/demand balance will not just remain awful but will actually deteriorate further.
While freight rates have improved of late, this is counter-cyclical and it will be a huge test of carriers' resolve and ability to maintain this momentum while at the same time continuing to effectively manage the supply side of the equation.
Drewry projects that average all-in east-west rates will climb rather encouragingly by 18%, but this has to be put in context against the 27% decline in 2009 and the fact that this does not even put rates back up to 2006 levels.
Carriers have a huge task ahead, given that their recent successes do not even bring them back to break-even levels. If ever there was a need for genuine cost-plus pricing in container shipping, now is that time.
Source : EFT, 12.01.10.
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