THE oversupply of vessels will likely continue to
outstrip demand in most shipping services and the outlook for the global
shipping industry will remain negative over the next 12-18 months, said Moody's
Investors Service.
"Substantial oversupply will constrain freight rates
for at least the next 18 months, particularly weighing on earnings in the dry
bulk and crude oil tanker segments, while falling US crude oil imports and
declining European demand are likely to depress sea borne deliveries,"
said Moody's vice president Marco Vetulli.
"We expect aggregate EBITDA in the global shipping
industry to decline five per cent - 10 per cent in 2013," he said,
reflecting the findings of Moody's latest industry report, Global Shipping
Industry: Sustained Oversupply Keeps Outlook Negative.
Shipping finance will remain tight with selective bank
lending continuing. In general, rated shipping companies have stronger
liquidity than the industry average, which should enhance their ability to
weather challenges posed by the weak operating environment.
Moody's said that it could change its outlook to stable
if it believed that the supply/demand gap is likely to narrow over the coming
12-18 months, such that supply exceeds demand by no more than two per cent, or
demand exceeds supply by up to two per cent. For the outlook to stabilise, the
industry's aggregate EBITDA growth would also need to be within a range of -5
to +10 per cent.
Market prospects should improve in 2014, as the amount of
oversupply declines. However, downside risks remain high as the global economic
recovery appears to have lost momentum in recent months, the agency said.
Source : HKSG.
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