25 Juni 2015

[250615.EN.BIZ] RI To Break Into Global Top 10 By 2050: Think Tank

JAKARTA. Mexico and Indonesia will replace Russia and Italy in the world’s top 10 economies in the near future, with China, the US and India taking the top three slots, according to forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit as reported by Bloomberg Business.

The world’s most populous nation will overtake the US as early as 2026 in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in dollar terms.

India and China will each be richer than the next five nations — Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil and the UK — combined, representing “a scale of wealth relative to the rest of the top 10 that is unique in recorded history”, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

In terms of per capita income, China is projected to almost catch Japan by 2050, by which point it will be just under half the US level from 14 percent in 2014. India’s spending power will surge to about 24 percent of US consumers from just 3 percent, the EIU said.

Asia will account for 53 percent of global GDP by 2050, with Europe’s share declining, according to the EIU.

However, for increases in working-age populations, you will need to look to Africa and the Middle East. Much of Europe and East Asia will record a decline in their labor forces, with fast-aging Japan seeing the biggest drop at more than 25 percent.

China and South Korea might see a 17 to 18 percent contraction in their labor forces, while Greece, Portugal and Germany were forecast to fall by more than a fifth, the EIU said.

The two Asian giants’ massive increase in economic power is likely to be accompanied by greater political clout.

“Given China’s and India’s economic might, they will take on a much bigger role in addressing global issues, such as climate change, international security and global economic governance,” the EIU said.

“In the medium term, this will require the world’s existing powers — notably the US — to let India, and especially China, play a greater role on the world stage and adapt international institutions to allow them to exert greater influence.”

Indonesia in 2008 became the first and still the only Southeast Asian member of the G20, which comprises a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, 
representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85 percent of global GDP and over 75 percent of global trade.

With GDP of less than US$900 billion, the country’s economy is now ranked as the 16th-largest in the world. However, in terms of GDP based on purchasing power parities valuation, Indonesia is already among the top 10-largest in the world, according to figures from the IMF and World Bank.

Source : Kontan, 24.06.15.

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