[240812.EN.SEA] Stifel Nicolaus Confidence Index Slips, But Logistics Mood Stays Positive

HOPES for a big economic rebound for sea and air freight in the second half have faded among logistics providers, but their mood continues to be positive, according to the August edition of the Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index.

The Stifel Nicolaus index includes a monthly survey of international shippers and forwarders that measures freight activity across several European trade lanes.

The August survey shows continued sequential deterioration in both the present climate and in the six-month outlook, though the decline is more pronounced in air freight than sea freight, reports the UK's Transport Intelligence.

"This month's results mark the third consecutive month of reduced forwarder confidence, but future expectations remain positive - above the index threshold value of 50.0," said the Ti report.

"Confidence among forwarders serving European inbound and outbound trade lanes dipped for a fourth consecutive month in August as sentiment regarding the present situation - already underperforming normal expectations for this time of year - fell even lower," the report said.

In sea freight, current expectations declined 4.6 per cent sequentially from an index reading of 45.4 to 43.3. Sentiment for the six-month expected outlook fell too, from 56.8 to 55.5, though it remained above the 50.0 break-even threshold, indicating that expansion is still expected.

"But for the first time since the index started in March, the logistics confidence, which averages the present and expected situation, fell below par. Air freight saw similar results, with current, expected, and the average logistics confidence readings posting sequential declines of 3.4 per cent across the board," the report said.

Source : HKSG.