[241213.EN.SEA] Economic Mass Shifts To Emerging Markets : OECD

FREIGHT data from the International Transport Forum (ITF) through September 2013 shows a shift of economic mass to emerging economies, said the agency of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group of affluent nations.

"Exports to BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa] and more specifically to China and India, have been the locomotive of European and North American growth since the crisis of 2008," said the ITF statement.

But trade shows signs of slowing down, said the report. External trade by sea from India to EU27 and the United States has declined during the last two quarters while trade by air is stagnating both in India and China.

American and EU27 exports increased and imports declined, reflecting weak domestic demand and stronger performance of emerging economies, said the ITF statement.

"EU external trade by air, considered as a lead indicator, rebounded above pre-crisis peak, indicating a potential improvement of the economic outlook. Road and rail freight data continue show weak domestic demand especially from the EU," it said.

The overall picture for global freight shows no major improvement, the ITF said. Total external trade by sea continues to stagnate below pre-crisis levels in the United States (down eight per cent) and EU27 (down three per cent). Exports and imports transported by sea display increasingly diverging trends. Total exports remained above pre-crisis levels EU27 (up 28 per cent), the United States (up 19 per cent) while imports declined further in EU27 (down 15 per cent) and the US (down 24 per cent).

"This reinforces the observation of a rebalancing trade and transport flows, mainly driven by weak performance of the advanced economies." said the ITF.

Air freight, considered a lead indicator, suggests continued uncertainty. US external trade by air stagnates below pre-crisis levels. But EU trade by air rebounded above the pre-crisis peak (up three per cent), indicating a potential improvement of the economic outlook, said the statement.

Also in decline was road freight (down 13 per cent) and rail freight (down eight per cent) in the EU from the pre-crisis peak, reflecting continuing weak domestic demand. Rail freight volumes in the US and the Russian Federation reached pre-crisis peaks earlier but then showed signs of slowing down, the ITF said.

Source : SN-TR.