ASIA is on the brink of leading a third wave of globalisation that will see the value of global exports quadruple to an estimated US$68.5 trillion by 2050, according to HSBC's Trade Winds report.
Future trade growth will be led by increasing intra-Asia movements, new technologies, plummeting logistics costs and strengthening economic integration. This will boost Asia's share of global exports to 27 per cent by 2050 from the current 17 per cent, concluded the report that was commissioned by HSBC Commercial Banking and compiled by Oxford Economics.
"The map of world trade created by this third wave of globalisation may look very different from today's, as shifting demographics and economic catch up - with almost 3 billion people joining the middle class by 2050, most of whom will be in emerging markets - lead to significant shifts in trade patterns," HSBC was cited as saying in a report by UK's Lloyd's Loading List.
"Asia-Pacific's share of global exports is forecast to rise from around a third in 2015 to 46 per cent in 2050. Western Europe's share is expected to decline from 34 per cent to 22 per cent, and North America's to fall from 11 per cent to nine per cent."
China is also anticipated to expand its lead as the world's top exporter, with its growing influence in Asia further extended by projects such as the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
"India also has the potential for strong growth, and is projected to outpace China," added HSBC. "The report expects growth in merchandise exports from India to average six per cent a year in 2025-50, compared with just under five per cent a year for China."
Source : HKSG.