04 Januari 2016

[040116.EN.BIZ] HSBC Forecasts Global Trade To Grow By 3pc in 2016


HSBC Bank's latest Global Connections Trade Forecast and Trade Confidence survey shows that 64 per cent of respondents believe trade volumes will rise over the next six months, representing a decline of 11 percentage points compared to the report's findings for the first half of 2015.

Singapore and Hong Kong suffered the largest declines in market confidence with more than 20 points for each. However, Asian economies will be the main drivers of global trade over the medium-term, with so-called "south-south" flows becoming the fastest growing trade corridors, according to the survey.

Brazil and Russia have been weak in 2015, but like China, HSBC said it sees the downturn as cyclical rather than structural.

"Despite the near-term challenges facing emerging markets, many of these economies benefit from strong economic fundamentals, meaning they are likely to be an important driver of global economic growth and trade over the medium term," the survey was cited as saying, reported Atlanta area Air Cargo World.

For this reason, the report is optimistic that stabilisation in these countries could lay the foundation for a moderate uptick in world trade in 2016, with HSBC forecasting import volumes in the US and Western Europe will expand by five to six per cent in 2016.

The banking giant anticipates growth in global trade to recover to three per cent in 2016, up from its forecast of one per cent growth in volume terms for 2015, picking up to five per cent a year by 2018-20.

Source : HKSG.

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