SEPTEMBER's trade figures from the exporting economies show a slowing decline month-on-month but way below that of 2008, reports "The Wall Street Journal".
Mark Matthews, Asia Pacific strategist with Fox-Pitt Kelton in Hong Kong said the rebound is far a major turnaround, "There is a recovery in trade that is happening, but it's too early to tell if it's the stimulus or a real recovery."
Figures show that export value decline narrowed with Taiwan experiencing a 12.7 per cent drop compared to August's 24.6 per cent; South Korea's saw a 11.1 per cent month on month, 6.6 per cent year on year and its slowest decline since year beginning.
Brazil's exports lift over August was attributed to those for energy and agricultural commodities.
But liberal New York Times columnist and Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman is gloomy. "When it comes to international trade, it's not the Great Depression, it's worse.
But some are optimistic. Retailers' pessimism may cost them says Russell Napier, a global strategist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, if corporates cut inventory too much, "there is a real possibility of a global toy shortage this Christmas."
With trade figures from the US and China in the coming few days it is a slippery forecast but the International Monetary Fund sees a world trade contraction of 11.9 per cent for 2009 before growth in 2010 of 2.5 per cent.
Source : HKSG, 13.10.09
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